Event Report: 20 Nov 09 NYC Counterinsurgency–America’s Strategic Burden Featuring Nagl, Kilcullen, Sheehan, Bergen, Coll Among Others
COIN20 Trip Report
21 November 2009
Memorandum of Transmittal by Robert David STEELE Vivas
Subject: Counterinsurgency Conference Overview
Mr. Jason Liszkiewicz, Executive Director of the Earth Intelligence Network (EIN) and resident in NYC, attended the 20 November 2009 conference on counterinsurgency (speakers identified on page two), and provided me with the notes on pages 3-9. Below is my own exploitation of these notes.
IGNORANT US POLICYMAKERS. We have policymakers with crippling illusions about how the world is—worst ever—people in policy positions do not understand the problems they are making policy on—Congress is unsophisticated about Afghanistan; Washington-area decision-makers vastly misunderstand the enemy—Taliban is a super-bug adapting super-fast. This is NOT about Al Qaeda having a home base. Congress lacks next of kin engaged.
CORRUPT AFGHAN OFFICIALS. Afghan government officials own 32% of the Palm Islands in Dubai—election was “industrial-strength fraud”—tsunami of cash (US, Saudi, others) drives corruption. NOTE: No Afghans on any of the panels.
US LACKS AREA KNOWLEDGE & STRATEGY. We really do not “get” the Afghanistan-Pakistan-India context, detail, etcetera. US “strategy” of “ten cities” is a mirror of the Soviet strategy before defeat. Doctrine is not a substitute for Strategy. Water (Indus River) is central to Pakistan-India relationship (Kashmir is about water). Question NOT being asked: how do we do this without a US ground presence? “Cheap coat of paint” approach to challenges. “Tactics without strategy is noise before defeat.” Saudi money, Pakistan-Taliban axis will outlast US money and US ground presence.
COUNTERINSURGENCY MANUAL LACKING. Counterinsurgency manual is not realistic and warps policy debate—the reality of poppy crops is not in the manual, not in the “strategy/doctrine”
UN, AID, NGO OOB NOT WORKNG. UN not working, its role not thought out, shortfalls in specialized everything. Local corruption and family-political angling for contracts lead to some IED’s intended to block or redirect contract funds. AID giving contracts to Americans, not Afghans. US has no ability to create ministries from scratch. Civilian capabilities non-existent or not understood by military when they do show up. No inter-agency planning in part because the civilians have no idea why they are there or what they should do.
LOST IN TRANSLATION. Continue to lack Pashto translators. More Pashto speakers within NYPD than in all US forces across Afghanistan
EXIT OPPORTUNITIES. Afghan Army most respected institution in country, best fighters but worst policemen. US ground presence makes things worse. Solutions have to be Afghan. Afghan population wants sovereignty and independence. US troops simply surviving, not campaigning.
On page 10 I provide the “Lessons Learned” from my 1992 study of USMC operations.
I am sorry to say that Steele again has exactly described the problem with Afghanistan. Sorry because President Obama and his NSC do not appear to understand the real issues in Afghanistan and thus cannot come up with either a regional strategy nor an effective exit strategy.
“Counterinsurgency” Field Manual 3-24, Dec. 2006 (282 pages, 12 MB).
http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24.pdf
“Tactics in Counterinsurgency,” Field Manual 3-24.2, April 21, 2009 (300 pages, 10 MB).
http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24-2.pdf
National Security Archives — Afghanistan Déjà vu? Lessons from the Soviet Experience
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB292/index.htm
Afghanistan brief 1 (military brief in zip file) http://tr.im/i2Gt
Afghanistan brief 2 (military brief in zip file) http://tr.im/i2GK
June 13, 2001: Extensive ISI Support for Taliban Continues
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a060isisupport#a060isisupport
(video) U.S. training Afghans, hashish
http://tr.im/ieVE
US military in Afghanistan & often contradictory instructions laid out in the Counterinsurgency Field Manual – http://tr.im/jish
Taliban defector ignored by CIA
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a02250leaderignored#a02250leaderignored
How do we understand the relationship between the ISI [Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence] and the Taliban?
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/taliban/interviews/coll.html
October 8-9, 2006: Head of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Asks Pakistan to Stop Supporting Taliban; No Action Results
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a100806richardsmusharraf#a100806richardsmusharraf
1994-1997: US Supports Taliban Rise to Power
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a1994ussupportstaliban#a1994ussupportstaliban
After September 1996: Journalist Sees US and Taliban Combating Russia over Central Asian Pipeline Issue
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=aafter0996combat#aafter0996combat
September 15, 2001: Head of ISI Argues Pakistan Should Side with Taliban, but Musharraf Agrees to Help US as Opportunistic Necessity
(India-related)
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=a0901musharrafmeeting#a0901musharrafmeeting
Large Photo Collection of War in Afghanistan
http://cryptome.org/info/af-photo-war-04/af-photo-war-04.htm
(video) The Ugly of War-US medical evacuation (Medevac) crew stories
http://tr.im/Ftjn
“The Total Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, & Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11″
http://is.gd/Tr6x
National Security Archive dox related to 9/11, Taliban, more
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/index.html#911
(Stars & Stripes) From Iraq & Afghanistan to African villages, countless projects have gone to waste/limited interagency coordination
http://is.gd/15UtW
“Afghanistan — Geospatial Analysis Reveals Patterns in Terrorist Incidents 2004-2008″
http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/afghan-geospat.pdf
“Middle East Elections 2009: Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, and Iraq”
http://is.gd/TqNx
State Dept $150M to Fight Afghan & Pak Militants Via Mobile Phones & Radio Stations
http://www.phibetaiota.net/?p=8059
Afghan law allows husbands to deny wives food if they fail to obey sexual demands
http://tr.im/BsiH
Afghan woman’s mobile company
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0416/174.html
CIA insurgency related (24 pgs from the 1980′s?)
http://www.fas.org/irp/cia/product/insurgency.pdf
“Skateistan” skateboarding school in Afghanistan
http://is.gd/OLSP
In regards to Obama:
In August 2007, Obama got into some hot water over aggressive comments http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2007/08/obama-again-tak.html he made toward Pakistan. “There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans,” said Obama. “They are plotting to strike again. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and [Pakistani] President Musharraf will not act, we will.”
He was so heavily criticized over that statement that some at the time suggested it might actually cost him the Democratic nomination. Obama retorted later at a debate, “We’re debating the most important foreign policy issues that we face, and the American people have the right to know.”
‘PRESS FOR TRUTH’ presented a strong case that Pakistan’s intelligence service, or elements of it, was involved in the 9/11 plot, or at least had foreknowledge of it. The movie criticized President George W. Bush for the bizarre partnership he formed with the country despite their apparent harboring of Bin Laden and others.
“I find it amusing,” Obama said, “that those who voted to authorize and engineer the biggest foreign policy disaster in our generation are now criticizing me.”
One last related note…a strengthening of the military of Pakistan that comes from corporations like Lockheed Martin…money well spent? Corporations and peace-building need to be evaluated and promoted more-so.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Pakistans-P-3-Orions-05972/
Brzezinski under Carter gave Pakistan the go-ahead to create the nuclear bomb, the SUNNI nuclear bomb. Too few appreciate the reality that SHI-”ITE Iran is vastly more afraid of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia than it is of the USA. Iran sucked the USA into Iraq using Chalabi, the USA has been duped into wreaking havoc on two Sunni-run countries (AF & IQ), their strategic focus is on Sunni Muslims, not the USA.
[...] election. See The Trial of Henry Kissinger. At Phi Beta Iota, the Public Intelligence Blog, see the Event Report on the Counterinsurgency Conference to understand how nothing has changed in Washington between Viet-Nam and Afghanistan. Vote on [...]