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Source (December 2005)

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We really like this example of mutlinational handbooks, since they were developed using multiple sources (U.S. and other countries), and not restricted, and global in nature….not U.S. centric.

Analysts

Free Public Handbooks

For the record:  Robert Steele wrote 85% of the first, and provided 85% of the second from conference proceedings.  The third was done almost entirely by LCdr Andrew Chester, RN Canada.  The first NATO document was in turn based on Steele’s writing of the first DIA OSINT Handbook in 1996.

Jack Davis

PLATINUM Jack Davis, Virtual Dean of US All-Source Analytic Corps

For over three decades, Jack Davis has been the heir to Sherman Kent and the mentor to all those who would strive to be the world’s most effective all-source intelligence analysts.  As a Central Intelligence Agency analyst and educator, he combines intellect, integrity, insight, and an insatiable appetite for interaction with all manner of individuals regardless of rank and disposition.  He is the most able pioneer of “analytic tradecraft,” the best proponent for the value of human analysis over technical processing, and one of those very special individuals who helped define the end of 20^th Century centralized analysis and the beginning of 21^st Century distributed multinational multiagency analysis.

Note: Awarded in advance of IOP ’07 to celebrate Jack Davis’ 50th uninterrupted year as an all-source analyst and mentor to all analysts.

The Compendium is 45 pages in all and consists of a Foreword, Summary, and then ten Notes to Analysts:

Jack Davis

Note 1:  Addressing US Interests in DI Assessments

Note 2: Access and Crediblity

Note 3: Articulation of Assumptions

Note 4: Outlook

Note 5: Facts and Sourcing

Note 6: Analytic Expertise

Note 7: Effective Summary

Note 8: Implementation Analysis

Note 9: Conclusions

Note 10: Tradecraft and Counterintelligence

General Al Gray, USMC, then Commandant of the Marine Corps (CMC) created the Marine Corps Intelligence Center (MCIC) at the same time that he created the Marine Corps University (MCU).  He was guided by the reality that the larger serices–the Army, Navy, and Air Force–devoted all of their attention to trainng, equipping, and organizing for “Big War” against the Soviet Union and China.  He also recognized that there were many strategic assumptions in the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), including the assumption, by the large services, that they would have lead times for deploying and employing forces abroad.

The U.S. Marine Corps, as the Nation’s force in readiness, did not and does not have that luxury.  It is unique in three respects:

1) It is a Congressionally-mandated combined arms force;

2)  It is intended to excel at littoral and expeditionary operations including opposed amphibious landings and Non-Combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO); and third

3)  It must have, to be successful, the lightest possible logistics and mobility foot-print.

Below are two slides thaf illustrate the power of the Expeditionary Analytic Model that was devised for MCIC.  The firt shows the importance of holistic analytic of military, civil, and natural factors at each of the four levels of war and peace.  The second shows that the threat depends on the level of analysis (including the duration and purpose of the mission).

EE 21 Model Top-Level View

Threat Changes Depending on Level of Analysis

Below are the first pages leading to the entire documents of the Strategic Generalizations that were derived from a properly-constructed holistic model, generalization that should but do not guide how we train, equip, and organized our military; and the model itself, which uniquely also established degrees of difficulty for each mission area factor, degrees of difficulty defined by the respective operational managers in their terms.

EE 21 Analytic Model

EE 21 Findings

Below is the briefing on the Model and its Findings as prepared for Marine Corps leaders at all levels.  The strategic generalization are very important–for example, the expeditionary environment is characterized by a hot humid day, not the “standard aviation day” that the Navy and Air Force build airplanes to, which is not not and not humid.  THIS MEANS that for the Marine Corps, any aircraft built to Navy and Marine Corps specification is automatically degrated at full operational capability (FOC) to half the lift, half the range, and half the loiter time over Marines on the ground being supported.

USMC EE 21 Analytic Model

CATALYST Paper

When Diane Web reached the Office of Scientific and Weapons Research (OSWR) at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), she entered what John Perry Barlow called in a Forbes article “the gulag.”  Gray desks and rotten tools–she had better computers and better analytic tools as a graduate student prior to joining the CIA.  With help from Dennis McCormick and under the oversight of Gordon Oehler, she devised CATALYST, shown below in obth the original version and the enhanced version that Robert Steele acreated on top of contributions from Bill Ruh (CISCO AON).  Click on the Frog to reach the SOCOM J-23 list of unintegrated softwares, and the DARPA STRONG ANGEL TOOZL initiative.  Although dated 1989, this was devised in 1984 and took the usual four years of editing at CIA before it finally got into the public domain.

SOCOM SW Cluster and TOOZL

Put bluntly, the USA will continue to be stupid at the strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels because none of the money being provided by the taxpayer and spent by the so-called policymakers has any connection to reality understood in the context of access to all information in all languages all the time, a strategic analytic model for holistic analysis of all ten threats to humanity acorss all twelve policy budget and behavior domains; and a toolset for multinational, multiagency, multidisciplinary, multidomain information sharing and sense-making (M4IS2).

Original Concept

New Cloud Concept

Book Home Page

Title Pages

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Chapter 9

Appendix

This is the seminal work in what the author has long named “information mapping.”  Posted as a public service with permission of the author, under Creative Commons license.  No commercial exploitation is permitted without documented consent of the author.

Book intended to be read two pages at a time.  The author suggests printing by the chapter, and then reading with even pages to the left and odd pages to the right, two pages at a time.

Visit the author’s HOME PAGE.