Public Intelligence Blog

Neal Rauhauser

The Only Red Line That Matters

Conclusion:

Here are what I hope are a fairly complete laundry list of the issues:

• NATO member Greece has collapsed, triggering regional banking meltdown concerns
• Banks of Cyprus collapsed, Russian offshore banking haven taken out by Greek troubles
• Russian ally Assad’s Syria is failing, loss of Tartus would exclude them from the Med
• Assad regime is the only Iran friendly outpost in the area
• Syrian revolt is funded in part by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, other Sunni majority regimes
• KSA & Qatar funds come /w Salafist radicalization built into the deal
• NATO members Greece & Turkey are at odds over Cyprus partition
• Syrian instability is spilling into Iraq, fueling Sunni/Shia violence, some refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into U.S. ally Jordan, many refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into NATO member Turkey, many refugees
• Israel is concerned over weapons transport to Hezbollah in Lebanon

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The Syrian civil war has been metastasizing into all of its immediate neighbors – Iraq, Turkey, and Lebanon have all seen violence precipitated by this festering conflict. Regional powers Iran and Russia have connections to the failing Assad regime and have taken indirect steps to protect the status quo. Regional Salafist funders Saudi Arabia and Qatar are funneling support and pushing ideology on Sunni Syrian rebels. I do not envy Israeli policy makers and the menu of unpleasant options that reality has provided them.

Russia has drawn a red line of their own – no NATO intervention in Syria. They’ve backed it up with a naval presence and the transfer of advance anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime. The Syrian civil war is a multifaceted, multipolar regional issue and there are no soundbite sized prescriptions that will end it.

Read full post with maps.

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Syria-Russia: Update. This week, the New York Times reported that Russia is delivering not only the S-300 advanced air defense missile systems to Syria, but also Yakhont “ship killer” missiles, which would make it a lot more painful for any foreign navies trying to intervene in Syria or provide supplies to the rebels by sea

In 2007, the two countries signed a contract for 72 Yakhont missiles which are supersonic and have a range of about 200 miles. Some missiles were delivered in 2011 but the Russians have not said how many remain to be provided. They are among the most deadly anti-ship missiles in the world.

Comment: Details about the S-300 system delivery remain undisclosed, including whether Russians will install and operate it. A member of the Russian parliament confirmed the Russians consider the Yakhont delivery a part of a longstanding weapons contract. The effect of these deliveries is to deter a UN resolution approving creation of a no-fly zone in Syria, as occurred in Libya which evolved into a NATO air combat campaign with limited ground intervention.

Russia: Russian navy ships from the Pacific Fleet entered the Mediterranean Sea for the first time in decades this week. The task group includes the destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, two amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, as well as a tanker and a tugboat.

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DefDog

Ho ho ho….

Russian Pacific Fleet Warships Enter Mediterranean For First Time In Decades, To Park In Cyprus

Zero Hedge, 16 May 2013

Earlier we reported that the US has now officially landed a Marine force in Israel as well as an assault ship, in a visit that the US Navy promptly assured “is not associated with, nor a reaction to, any world events.” It seems we were not the only ones who read this justification somewhat skeptically: so did Russia.

And in a historic event, the Russian Pacific fleet, for the first time in decades, crossed the Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean, direction Cyprus’ port of Limasol (hi Cyprus – Russia will be arriving shortly) in what is now the loudest implied warning to the US and Israel amassing military units across Syria’s border that Russia will not stand idly by as Syria is used by the Israeli “Defense” Forces for target practice.

Russian Amphibious Ship Admiral Nevelskoi – Click on Image to Enlarge

“The task force has successfully passed through the Suez Channel and entered the Mediterranean. It is the first time in decades that Pacific Fleet warships enter this region,” Capt. First Rank Roman Martov said. This is what is also known as dropping hints, loud and clear.

Admiral Panteleyev destroyer – Click on Image to Enlarge

The group, including the destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, the amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, the tanker Pechenga and the salvage/rescue tug Fotiy Krylov left the port of Vladivostok on March 19 to join Russia’s Mediterranean task force.

The task force currently includes the large anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, the frigate Yaroslav Mudry, the salvage/rescue tugs Altai and SB-921 and the tanker Lena from the Northern and Baltic Fleets, as well as the Ropucha-II Class landing ship Azov from the Black Sea Fleet. The task force may be enlarged to include nuclear submarines, Navy Commander Admiral Viktor Chirkov said last Sunday.

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Shore leave for a whole lot of submarines just a few hundred kilometers from Syria? Surely. From Rian.

The Defense Ministry said in April Russia has begun setting up a naval task force in the Mediterranean, sending several warships from the Pacific Fleet to the region. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in March a permanent naval task force in the Mediterranean was needed to defend Russia’s interests in the region.

A senior Defense Ministry official said the Mediterranean task force’s command and control agencies will be based either in Novorossiysk, Russia, or in Sevastopol, Ukraine.

Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, head of the parliamentary defense committee, previously told RIA Novosti that the Mediterranean task force should be comprised of 10 warships and support vessels as part of several tactical groups tasked with attack, antisubmarine warfare and minesweeping.

The Soviet Union maintained its 5th Mediterranean Squadron from 1967 until 1992. It was formed to counter the US Navy’s 6th Fleet during the Cold War, and consisted of 30-50 warships and auxiliary vessels

It appears that the squadron is being reincarnated and quite rapidly at that.

It also appears that the two key naval forces in the Mediterranean are finally starting to position themselves for what may soon be a face off.

Hopefully Europe’s “anti-manipulation” task force can spook enough majors to push the price of Brent much lower before the moment such an escalation becomes reality.

Chuck Spinney

Below is a very interesting summary of the political tensions among secularism and religion and modernism and tradition in Tunisia.  I think the author, who I do not know but whose writings I have followed, is one of the most knowledgeable observers of the Arab Spring.

Chuck Spinney

Washington Report on Middle East Affairs

April 2013, Pages 41-42

Tunisia in Turmoil:What Next?

By Esam Al-Amin

THE SPARK THAT ignited the Arab Spring over two years ago came from Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia. For 28 days people across the country revolted against the repression and corruption of the 23-year authoritarian regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Finally, on Jan. 14, 2011 Tunisians celebrated their victory and resilience over tyranny and oppression when Ben Ali fled the country. But if getting rid of the dictator was relatively short and easy, the dismantling of his regime and its corrosive effects on society has proven to be very challenging indeed.

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China-North Korea: Update. China’s Foreign Ministry declined Wednesday, 8 May, to confirm the Bank of China’s closure of the account of the North Korean Foreign Trade Bank. In response to a question at Wednesday’s news conference, Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said, “For specifics, please refer it to competent Chinese authorities.”

Sources of the Daily NK reported that since 7 May, “other Chinese state banking entities including China Construction Bank have apparently ceased business dealings with North Korean financial entities as well. The banks did so in accordance with guidance handed down by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and as such is actually a policy of the Chinese government.”

Comment: If the Chinese are exerting economic pressure against North Korea as punishment for refusing to listen to guidance, some reaction by North Korea should become evident soon. Such action would represent a strategic change in China’s relationship with North Korea. More on this later.

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Published on Jan 12, 2013

Conversations to Awaken your Soul. Live from the Hay House “I Can Do It” conference in Las Vegas. A conversation with Dr. Wayne Dyer and Bruce H. Lipton, PhD.  Bottom line: DNA is fixed, but DNA read-out is infinitely variable and radically affected by your beliefs, consciousness, and mental focus.  One third to two thirds of “medicine” is a placebo effect — this coincides with the documented view that half to two thirds of all surgical procedures are unnecessary and half to two thirds of pharmaceuticals are either ineffective or harmful.  Less well understood is the negative effect of all of the medical programming on television telling people about diseases they do not have so that they will get them.  In brief, television is making people ill.

Related:

YouTube (56:71) Bruce Lipton: being a cell of Humanity & Letting go of the illusion of separation

John Maguire: YouTube (9:23) Arguments for the Elimination of Television

See Also:

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Berto Jongman

Published on Apr 30, 2013

Tunisia: The Tunisian government announced yesterday it was setting up crisis cells after the United States warned that al-Qaida in the African Maghreb (AQIM) was seeking to establish a base in the country.

“We have launched the creation of crisis cells to monitor terrorist activities on the border (with Libya and Algeria) and in the interior, faced with the rise of the militant movement and the existence of recruitment networks,” Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddou told Parliament.

He said those cells would be under the control of Tunisia’s Supreme Security Council and would also gather information on networks enrolling young Tunisians to fight in Syria.

Comment: This looks like an intelligence operation rather than combat. Reaction by the Tunisian Islamist parties should indicate whether the Tunisians are taking seriously the US warning.

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China-North Korea: China did not export any crude oil to North Korea in February, Reuters reported, citing customs data. It marks the first time since early 2007 that no deliveries were made.

Comment: China exports crude by means of a pipeline to North Korea’s west coast refinery at Sinuiju. The pipeline has a throughput capacity of 1 million tons per year, but in the past few years it has carried about 500,000 tons, or just under 42,000 tons per month.

No other steady source of crude has been reported since before the end of the Warsaw Pact. Russian Far East companies send some crude to North Korea to have it refined at the east coast refinery and shipped back to the Far East, usually paying the North Koreans in kind.

The lack of Chinese crude supplies in February implies that North Korea has had to draw on fuel stocks to sustain the nationwide training. This is a chronic, strategic and systemic vulnerability of North Korea. China can make North Korea stop.

If China exports no crude in March, North Korean national readiness will have been degraded significantly because of the extra demands on supplies of food and fuel that are not being replaced. Whatever provocation North Korea plans must take place before the fuel runs low and the civilians begin to rebel or desert their mobilization stations. Contacts along the China border say the exercises will last until the US and South Korean exercises end.

China-North Korea: President Xi Jinping has sent a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stressing that the two countries are “friendly neighbors,” according to the Korean Central News Agency on 21 March.

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