IO Sense-Making « Public Intelligence Blog

The Journal of Strategic Security (JSS), a publication of Henley-Putnam University, seeks manuscripts for an upcoming issue on intelligence analytic tradecraft, training, education, and practical application for the Fall 2013 issue, Vol. 6, No. 3.

The Fall 2013 issue of JSS is a venue for authors to share ideas and exchange information about best practices and lessons learned in the field of intelligence studies. How are intelligence skills applied in different contexts and industries? Are intelligence-related skills best taught in the classroom or “caught” through on-the-job training, and how much does the answer depend on the desired outcome of the instruction?

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Mar 7

NIGHTWATCH: Chinese Using Senkaku Islands Dispute to Experiment with Managing “Total War” Across All Domains

Categories: 02 China,03 Economy,04 Inter-State Conflict,10 Security,11 Society,IO Sense-Making

Japan-China: Bloomberg has published an excellent report that describes the economic consequences of Japan’s dispute with China over ownership of the Senkaku Islands. No other news outlet has published a comparably insightful and detailed account.

The first point the journalists made is that trade relations between China and Japan multiply the costs of a territorial dispute. Japan’s trade with China is valued at more than $300 billion per year, which is potentially at risk.

A Chinese boycott of Japanese imports would hurt China but might already have resulted in a reduction of GDP, according to Bloomberg citing JPMorgan Chase, because of reduced Chinese purchases of Japanese goods.

Ripple effects in China from boycotts of Japanese manufactures put at risk the jobs of millions of Chinese who work in Japanese industries in China. Japanese auto sales declined. Air travel cancellations increased in both countries. One Japanese department store retailer closed 60 of 169 stores because of anti-Japanese vandalism and threats.

Comment: The key point is that global economic integration magnifies the consequences of international disputes. Interdependency means both sides seriously suffer economically, although security incidents result in no casualties. Japan might have sustained a .5 per cent decline in GDP in the last quarter of 2012, essentially because of Chinese hostile, nationalistic responses to the islands dispute.

Both sides got hurt, but China can absorb the consequences more than Japan.

Another key point is that the dispute shows how the Chinese fight in every kind of battle space – at sea, in the air, on the land, in cyber space, in international political space and in economic space. Total warfare means total to the Chinese. They are experimenting with that in the Senkakus dispute.

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Jan 10

Penguin: Cataloging Wounds of War to Help Heal Them — Not Big Data, Not Small Data, But Rather Integrated “Smart” Data

Categories: IO Deeds of War,IO Impotency,IO Sense-Making

Who, Me?

Cataloging Wounds of War to Help Heal Them

By C. J. CHIVERS

New York Times, May 17, 2012

FORT CAMPBELL, Ky. — To those unfamiliar with a battlefield’s bleak routine, Col. Michael D. Wirt’s database could be read like a catalog of horrors. In it, more than 500 American soldiers are subjected to characteristic forms of violence of the Afghan war.

Faces are smacked with shrapnel, legs are blasted away near knees, bullets pass through young men’s abdomens. Vehicles roll over, crushing bones. Eardrums rupture. Digits are severed.

Dozens of soldiers die. Hundreds more begin journeys home, sometimes to treatment that will last the rest of their lives.

Each was listed in a small but meticulous computer entry by Colonel Wirt, a doctor intent on documenting how soldiers were wounded or sickened, how they were treated and how they fared. For those seeking to understand war and how best to survive it, the doctor on his own initiative created an evidence-based tool and a possible model.

His database is one part of a vast store of information recorded about the experiences of American combatants. But there are concerns that the potential lessons from such data could be lost, because no one has yet brought the information together and made it fully cohere.

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May 18

DefDog: Counter-IED Network Analysis – Works for Law Enforcement, Ignored by US Military

Categories: 09 Terrorism,10 Security,10 Transnational Crime,Ethics,Intelligence (government),IO Sense-Making,Law Enforcement,Methods & Process,Military,Officers Call

DefDog

When we worked on the Manhunting Project for SOCOM, the US Marshall’s Service said that fugitive hunting was all about network analysis. The IC doesn’t understand network analysis as the bean counters push for numbers….they focus on low hanging fruit and as a result there is always some guy out there ready to step up and take the foot soldier’s place (not so much the upper echelons). Try to tell an IC drone that it is all about the network and you will get a deer in the headlight look….

The REAL Jack Bauer

Contributor: Louis DeAnda

Police forces have spent decades combating organised crime with well-practised techniques, but can the same tactics be the key to defeating insurgencies on the front line? Former police officer, federal marshal, and JIEDDO FOX team member Louis J. DeAnda tells Defence IQ how we need to take a holistic strategy to IED network attack…

Phi Beta Iota: Completely apart from the corruption at the top of both the Department of Justice and the Department of Defense, this is an extraordinary–a gifted–contribution to the literature. It is reproduced in full below the line to preserve it as a reference.

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Apr 24

Plan for Next Week: Three Events in DC on the Bleeding Edge

Categories: IO Sense-Making

Event: WED-THU 27-28 March DC Affordable World Security Conference

Event: FRI 30 Mar GWU DC Can Buberian Dialogues Temper Political Stridency?

Event: SAT AM 31 Mar Washington Panel on Complexity & Reflexivity, Washington Academy of Sciences + Meta-RECAP

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Mar 22

Koko: Crowd-Sourcing Weather Forecasting

Categories: Civil Society,Collective Intelligence,IO Sense-Making,Methods & Process

Koko

Koko Sign: Gorillas better forecasters than computers.

Crowdsourcing Snowstorm’s Westward Model Shift

AccuWeather.com, Dec 7, 2011

I was surprised to see this HRRR forecast model prediction of tonight’s Northeast snow showing no snow for Harrisburg and York, PA, and showing the axis of heaviest snow (4-8″) over or west of State College, PA. This disagreed with overnight AccuWeather and NWS forecasts that showed it further east. This storm will be a good test of last minute “nowcasting” by the new higher-resolution models that we have access to this winter season. I thought I’d “crowdsource” this forecast on the WeatherMatrix Facebook page so my readers could weigh in.

. . . . . . .

This is an example of how Social Media is revolutionizing weather forecasting, something I’ll be writing about in WeatherWise magazine‘s Jan-Feb. 2012 issue, and it’s not at all unseen here at AccuWeather — when our company was started 50 years ago, our founder Joel Myers noted that the average consensus forecast of his entire meteorology class would always beat the best daily forecasters – which is why we have a twice-daily map discussion here at HQ to get all of the meteorologists on the same page – an internal crowdsourcing if you will.

Read full post with weather graphics.

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Dec 7

Kristan Wheaton: Intelligence Analytics – Three Sources

Categories: Articles & Chapters,Commercial Intelligence,IO Sense-Making,Methods & Process,Movies

Kristan Wheaton

VIDEO (8:19) Applying Scenarios, Wargames and Advanced Intelligence Analytics (Part 1 of 2)

Generic is worthless–focus on real specific threats and opportunities. Do the collection rather than just speculating without data. Do not extrapolate from the past — instead intuit and shape the future.

VIDEO (7:12) Applying Scenarios, Wargames and Advanced Intelligence Analytics (Part 2 of 2)

First, study your business model. Then simplify it. Then innovate.

In passing (PDF): The impact of competitive intelligence on products and services innovation in organizations

Competitive Intelligence (CI) is not impacting on innovation.

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Dec 6

John Robb: Understanding Pathogenic Behavior

Categories: 03 Economy,Blog Wisdom,Commerce,Commercial Intelligence,Corruption,Cultural Intelligence,Government,IO Sense-Making,Military

John Robb

THE ART OF PATHOGENIC WARFARE

Within human social and economic systems, pathogenic behavior is spreading. This is particularly true among powerful, successful, and wealthy people (finance, economics, politics, etc.) in the developed world. What specifically do I mean by pathogenic? An ever greater number of these people are adopting behaviors that are actively hostile to the human systems we rely upon. They actually think it is OK to put these systems at risk for personal benefit. This is very dangerous. Given the massive amounts of network, technological, and financial leverage that’s currently available to these people, even a single bad actor can wreak global havoc like never before (as in, they could cause an economic collapse that’s so severe that it could kill more people than every war we’ve ever had to date, combined).

So, why is this happening and how can we prevent it? This has been a tough section of the book I’m currently writing. Fortunately, I think I’m starting to unravel it. Here we go. In order to understand why some bad actors are willing to do grievous harm to the complex systems they rely upon, we need to visit the cutting edge of microbiology. Let’s start that exploration with a look at an amazing article by Brett Finlay in the Scientific American called, “Stopping Infections: The Art of Bacteriological Warfare.”

Good, Neutral, and Bad Bacteria

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