Chuck Spinney: German Economic Imperialism Killing Europe?

Categories: 01 Brazil,02 China,03 Economy,03 India,04 Inter-State Conflict,05 Civil War,06 Russia,07 Other Atrocities,08 Wild Cards,10 Transnational Crime,Analysis,Civil Society,Commerce,Corruption,Government,Law Enforcement,Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth,Policy,Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests,White Papers

Chuck Spinney

Will Germany Kill the Goose that Laid the Golden Egg?

Since the middle of the 19th Century, the central questions in European politics have been been have been the closely connected questions of nationalism and the rise of German power.  As my good friend and eminent historian Gabriel Kolko shows in the brilliant essay attached below, the post war solutions of NATO and the European Union, together with the exigencies of the Cold War, put these questions on hold, but their fundamentals remained, sleeping beneath the surface, and today, the conflicting questions of nationalism and German power are again coming to the fore to create ominous problems for Europe and the world.
There can be no question that, until 2007 or so, the European Union — particularly the opening of borders, the free flow of labour and capital, the disappearance of tariffs, and diminution of non-tariff trade restrictions, etc. combined to make life better for the mass of average Europeans.  Standards of living rose steeply and social services improved in parallel.  This was particularly evident in the poorer EU countries on the southern rim.  I saw and experienced this astounding improvement in the quality of life on a very personal level, living on a sailboat in southern Europe since the summer of 2005.  I will never forget the comment made to me by an Italian psychologist in Calabria in 2006, which is the heart of the provincial south of Italy, “It is a great time to be a European.” To be sure, he was an educated member of the upper middle class, and not representative of the average Calabrian, but it struck me that this Calabrian saw himself as a European.  It was not very long ago, that such a person would only loosely consider himself to be an Italian, not to mention a European.
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Dec 18

NIGHTWATCH: China Leads Multinational Intelligence and Operations Initiative within Mekong River Basin

Categories: 02 China,03 Economy,08 Wild Cards,10 Security,11 Society,12 Water,Commerce,Military

Click on Image to Enlarge

China-Mekong River Nations: Chinese press reported that joint security patrols with Thailand, Laos and Burma/ Myanmar will begin along the Mekong River. At a ministerial meeting in Beijing, the four countries agreed to begin the first patrol before 15 December and that the operation’s headquarters be located in China. The patrols will allow shipping to restart and guarantee security with China to help train and equip police in Laos and Myanmar.

Comment: Many younger Readers might not know that the Mekong River originates in southwest China and flows southwards through Southeast Asia to the South China Sea. The omission of Cambodia from the joint agreement indicates the security problems are in the upper reaches of the river. Thus, the security problems are in effect, inland waterways security issues along navigable waterways.

The interesting dynamic is the Chinese success in moving southward, by exploiting lapses of local security along a key waterway, to extend the Chinese sphere of influence. The Chinese have not had Chinese patrol boats or river security advisors on the Mekong along the Laos, Burma and Thai borders in centuries.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota:  Viet-Nam, long a co-equal and counter-weight to China in Southeast Asia, is not mentioned.  As the map illuminates, Cambodia and Viet-Nam control the entry points to the Mekong River.  Viet-Nam’s control of the eastern coast also precludes–absent an agreement–an obvious option for future commerce, a major canal or rail cut from the Mekong east to Vinh, one of four Grade 1 cities in Viet-Nam, a major ground transport hub, and a notable port.

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Dec 10

Thomas Briggs: No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons (Nor Does CIA Have Clandestine Assets Anywhere Relevant)

Categories: 02 China,10 Security,Academia,Budgets & Funding,Corruption,Director of National Intelligence et al (IC),DoD,Government,IO Deeds of War,Military,Peace Intelligence

Thomas Leo Briggs

Here is another posting related to this topic to balance the earlier piece from the Washington Post.

No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons

A study from Georgetown University incorrectly suggests that China has 3,000 nuclear weapons.The estimate is off by an order of magnitude.

By Hans M. Kristensen

EXTRACT:

According to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, China has produced an estimated 2 tons of plutonium for weapons. Some has been consumed in nuclear tests, leaving roughly 1.8 tons. The estimate is consistent with what the U.S. government has stated and theoretically enough for 450-600 warheads.

Total production of HEU is thought to have been approximately 20 tons. Some has been spent in nuclear tests and research reactor fuel, leaving a stockpile of some 16 tons. That’s theoretically enough for roughly 640-1,060 warheads.

Another critical material is Tritium, which is used in thermonuclear weapons. China probably only produces enough Tritium at its High-Flux Engineering Test Reactor (HFETR) in Jiajiang to maintain an arsenal of about 300 weapons.

The U.S. intelligence community concluded in 2009 that China likely has produced enough weapon-grade fissile material to meet its needs for the immediate future. In other words, no vast warhead expansion is in sight.

Read more, several excellent images.

Click on Image to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota:  We are reminded of how the British government sacrificed its intelligence and integrity in copying from a university paper to inflate the Iraq WMD threat, and we continue to believe that the “restricted” papers the students were given are both grounds for an investigation of their professor, and grounds for an Inspector General if not a Department of Justice inquiry into illegal PSYOP funding influence from the Pentagon to Georgetown University.  It merits positive comment that neither the CIA’s “all source” Directorate of Intelligence nor the CIA’s Open Source Center are capable of this level of work–the students, and their professor–have done a great deal of good.  They simply cannot combine — as the CIA and DIA cannot combine — open sources in all languages; deep analytic tradecraft; and rigorous personal integrity….nor does the CIA have any clandestine assets in China relevant to this particular inquiry, nor does the US Intelligence Community have leadership capable of focusing all-source collection and requisite (non-existent) processing on this vital question.  On the one hand, the Pentagon is correct to say that the US intelligence community stinks on all questions Chinese; on the other, the Pentagon and the White House are telling impeachable lies to Congress and the public on all matters relating to the Chinese threat and the Pentagon budget.  Our personal speculative estimate of China’s nuclear capability is closer to 30 operable weapons, to which we add that the US has never actually tested any of its nuclear weapons–we literally do not know if they will work as advertised.

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Dec 4

Thomas Briggs: Georgetown Students Scoop Secret World on China’s Tunnel System for Nuclear Weapons – or a PSYOP Against US Public?

Categories: 02 China,04 Education,04 Inter-State Conflict,07 Other Atrocities,10 Security,Academia,Corruption,Government,IO Deeds of War,Military,Peace Intelligence

Thomas Leo Briggs

A wonderful example of what can be done with open source material!

Georgetown students shed light on China’s tunnel system for nuclear weapons

By

Washington Post, November 29, 2011

The Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota:  The ability of students to excel in relations to spies is not knew, even with hard targets such as China.  For decades this web site and its antecedents have been saying “Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go.”  HOWEVER, in this specific case, with China as the target and the Pentagon budget on the line, there is a very high probability that the students are unwitting dupes in an illegal PSYOP being used to create an unethical justification for an ideological and political build-up against China, while protecting the bloated and extraordinarily corrupt Pentagon budget from the mandatory reductions agreed to in relation to the crisis at hand.  Bottom line:  the students have earned an A but the integrity of this endeavor is suspect.

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Dec 4

Theophilis Goodyear: China Credit Crashing

Categories: 02 China,03 Economy,Commerce,Commercial Intelligence,IO Impotency

Think?

Remember the footage in the “Inside Job” documentary of a single Chinese worker working in an otherwise empty giant factory? That factory could be productive, but the international currency system is preventing it.

That’s the irony. If all the world’s currencies collapse in one day, productive potential will be exactly the same as it was the day before, but production will fall idle all over the world because currency is the medium of exchange that facilitates production.

This is the main problem. If it’s not fixed it will become an even bigger problem; but it will still be the same problem. Fix the currency problem and production will be up and running again. Don’t fix it, and it will be The Day the Earth Stood Still (original version). And that day could drag into years if something isn’t done about it.
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Nov 21

DefDog: Russia-Europe-China Ignore US Cyber-Fools

Categories: 02 China,03 Economy,06 Russia,08 Wild Cards,10 Security,Computer/online security,Corruption,Government,IO Impotency

DefDog

Some background on this old report…..this conference has been going on for some time, fluctuates between Garmisch and Moscow…The US has offered to host it but has been consistently turned down. China showed up two years ago and the next conference (2012) is scheduled to be in Beijing…..if the US cannot, with is efforts in technological development, host a cyber conference it is indicative of what the rest of the world thinks of us….

Russia’s Cyber Security Plans

As Washington airs plans for a new “cyber command,” a top Russian official discusses the threat of cyberweapons.

Phi Beta Iota:  The lack of intelligence and integrity in the US Government is chillingly deep, especially within the US secret intelligence, and nowhere more irresponsible than within the National Security Agency/US Cyber-Command – both oxymorons.  The Chinese are all over NSA and Cyber is not a Command.

See Also:

Read the rest of this entry »

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Nov 17

NIGHTWATCH: Chinese Economy – Greece on Steroids

Categories: 02 China

China: The Ministry of Commerce said on 16 November that China’s exports are feeling pressure from global economic uncertainties. A spokesman said the ministry cannot be optimistic about the export situation during the coming period, citing a downshift in global economic recovery, a downgrade of the US credit rating and the expansion of the European debt crisis. He said that frequent protectionist measures and trade disputes have had a “relatively large influence” on China’s exports and that these issues, along with rising costs at home, have complicated China’s foreign trade outlook.

Comment: The Xinhua report is significant for several reasons. First it disclosed that the Chinese government expects that the credit rating of the United States will be downgraded. Second, the Chinese economists predict a contraction of the global economy. Finally, the Chinese anticipate a contraction of globalization as the result of protectionist policies, in other words, a reassertion of economic nationalism. The Chinese seem to expect that the export markets for cheap Chinese manufactures will shrink and the prices for raw materials will rise.

The apparent Chinese linkage of the US credit rating to the European debt crisis implies that the Chinese know or believe that US banks have much greater exposure to European sovereign debt than they have admitted. The Chinese assessment evidently is that Europe will drag down the US.

One Chinese economist, a professor of finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, recently wrote that the Chinese banking system is nearly bankrupt already and China’s Gross Domestic Product is declining, but the Chinese are hiding the data. He wrote that “every province in China is Greece.”

This note is a warning to hedge bets in China in 2012.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

Phi Beta Iota:  Holistic analytics requires a responsible integration of all ten high level threats to humanity and all twelve core policy domains, among which energy and water are the most tangible.  Countries that fail to plan for long-term affordable energy and for the protection and renewal of potable water will inevitably fail.

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Nov 17

Mini-Me: TheyRule Web Site Back Online

Categories: 02 China,03 Economy,06 Russia,07 Other Atrocities,08 Wild Cards,Commerce,Commercial Intelligence,Corruption,Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth,Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests

Who? Mini-Me?

They were online many years ago, then gone, now back.

They Rule – Facts & Charts

See Also:

Who Rules the World

How the Crown Rules the World

Who is the ‘Goldman Sachs rules the world’ trader?

Review: Gods of Money – Wall Street and the Death of the American Century

Review: Griftopia–Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America

Journal: $750 Billion Wall Street Scam, Russian Anger, Chinese Intent, We are NOT Making This Up!

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Nov 12

Mini-Me: From Arab Spring to Death of the US Empire

Categories: #OWS,02 China,02 Diplomacy,03 Economy,04 Inter-State Conflict,05 Civil War,06 Russia,07 Other Atrocities,08 Wild Cards,10 Security,11 Society,Analysis,Commerce,Commercial Intelligence,Corruption,Cultural Intelligence,Government,IO Deeds of War,Military,Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth,Movies,Policy,Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests,Strategy
Tags:

Who? Mini-Me?

‘Arab Spring is about controlling Eurasia’

Includes Video (12:04)

The ultimate goal of the US is to take the resources of Africa and Middle East under military control to block economic growth in China and Russia, thus taking the whole of Eurasia under control, author and historian William F. Engdahl reveals.

­The crisis with the US economy and the dollar system, the conduct of the US foreign policy is all a part of breakdown of the entire superpower structure that was built up after the end of WWII, claims Engdahl.

“Nobody in Washington wants to admit, just as nobody in Britain a hundred years ago wanted to admit that the British Empire was in terminal decline,” claims the author, noting that “All of this is related to the attempt to keep this sole superpower not only intact, but to spread its influence over the rest of the planet.”

William F. Engdahl believes the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa is a plan first announced by George W. Bush at a G8 meeting in 2003 and it was called “The Greater Middle East Project”.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Nov 1

John Robb: China Bans “Occupy” as Search Term

Categories: #OWS,02 China,09 Justice,10 Security,11 Society,Blog Wisdom,Civil Society,Cultural Intelligence,IO Impotency

John Robb

‘Occupy’ Now a Banned Search Term in China

A good rule of thumb for life is that if the Chinese government is against it, you’re probably doing something right. The latest evidence to support this axiom is the Occupy Wall Street movement, which has spread from lower Manhattan to cities around the globe, including London, Auckland, Toronto, and Rome, among many others. Terrified by OWS’ viral growth, the oppressive regime controlling China is taking measures to ensure the protests don’t happen there. And it’s starting with the internet.

Read full story.

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Oct 26
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