Public Intelligence Blog

Click on Image to Enlarge

President Assad: “I’m HERE TO STAY!”

West fueling violence without regard to cost.

Israeli Army Enters Syria & Supports the Pentagon-Trained Al Nusra Merceneries

All of one Israeli jeep destoryed by Syrian artillery fire in Security Zone.

Russia Sends at Least 12 Warships to Syria: A Warning to Israeli/US against Military Intervention in Syria

And there are the Russian specialists manning the Russian anti-air and anti-ship missiles now owned by Syria.

Click on Image to Enlarge

Citation:  “Graphic” Really Simple Guide to Syrian-Centered WWWIII Starting Line-Up,” Phi Beta Iota the Public Intelligence Blog, 18 May 2013.

See Also:

Berto Jongman: Assad Moving Missiles to Target Tel Aviv?

Neal Rauhauser: Syria, Regional War, The Only Red Line That Matters + Syria Meta-RECAP

Neal Rauhauser

The Only Red Line That Matters

Conclusion:

Here are what I hope are a fairly complete laundry list of the issues:

• NATO member Greece has collapsed, triggering regional banking meltdown concerns
• Banks of Cyprus collapsed, Russian offshore banking haven taken out by Greek troubles
• Russian ally Assad’s Syria is failing, loss of Tartus would exclude them from the Med
• Assad regime is the only Iran friendly outpost in the area
• Syrian revolt is funded in part by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, other Sunni majority regimes
• KSA & Qatar funds come /w Salafist radicalization built into the deal
• NATO members Greece & Turkey are at odds over Cyprus partition
• Syrian instability is spilling into Iraq, fueling Sunni/Shia violence, some refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into U.S. ally Jordan, many refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into NATO member Turkey, many refugees
• Israel is concerned over weapons transport to Hezbollah in Lebanon

Click on Image to Enlarge

The Syrian civil war has been metastasizing into all of its immediate neighbors – Iraq, Turkey, and Lebanon have all seen violence precipitated by this festering conflict. Regional powers Iran and Russia have connections to the failing Assad regime and have taken indirect steps to protect the status quo. Regional Salafist funders Saudi Arabia and Qatar are funneling support and pushing ideology on Sunni Syrian rebels. I do not envy Israeli policy makers and the menu of unpleasant options that reality has provided them.

Russia has drawn a red line of their own – no NATO intervention in Syria. They’ve backed it up with a naval presence and the transfer of advance anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime. The Syrian civil war is a multifaceted, multipolar regional issue and there are no soundbite sized prescriptions that will end it.

Read full post with maps.

Read the rest of this entry »

Who? Who?

The real story here is not whether Obama will survive five Watergate-type scandals, but it is rather about his response to scandals in his administration will lead to WWIII. Here are key take-aways from this first article:

“In the last eight months, I have repeated the mantra that most of what drives this government today is the preservation of the Petrodollar on behalf of the Federal Reserve. I have also detailed how Iran is selling its oil to Russia, China and India for gold, thus threatening the preeminence of the Petrodollar in which the other countries of the world must first purchase dollars from the Federal Reserve for the “privilege” of purchasing oil. This process provides the only backing that our dollar possesses.  Iran, China, Russia and India are destabilizing the dominance of our currency…”

Click on Image to Enlarge

Syria is key to attacking Iran:

“On the surface, Syria seems so very insignificant on the global chessboard. However, the key to invading Iran and seizing their oil fields is to first control Syria because the occupation of Syria is an insurmountable checkmate against Russian ground troops intervention.  If the US takes over the Syrian revolution that we started through our al-Qaeda proxy forces, the US will gain a huge tactical advantage in the Middle East. The installation of short and medium range missile batteries in Syria will serve as a deterrent and a blocking mechanism for Russian ground troops ability to intervene in Iran.  If Russia allows the US to control Syria, Russia will lose any chance of preventing a US/NATO takeover of Iran. Russia and China have heavily vested themselves in gold. If Iran is stopped from selling its oil for gold, China, Russia and India will have wasted a enormous amount of the respective GNP’s in acquiring gold.  And the acquisition of gold will be for naught if the US is above to re-establish the dominance of the Petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency through a successful invasion of Iran.  For awhile, it appeared as if Russia did not have the stomach for WWIII and they were going to let us topple Assad with so much as a whimper. I have been shocked as I watched Russia apparently acquiesce to an impending takeover of Syria by US led forces.  However, recent Russian events make it clear that WWIII is on the horizon.”

Intervening in Syria may result in some remarkable black swans if this author’s contacts are correct:

“My military and intelligence sources were telling me last year that Alaska and Taiwan were at risk of a Russian invasion with regard to this conflict as is the North Pole if we intervened directly in either Syria or Iran. The North Pole?  The North Pole’s melting glaciers has exposed the world’s greatest oil supply as well as untold amounts of gold and other precious metals. This is another story for another time except to illustrate that the Russians are talking world war if we topple Assad and invade Iran.  This means WWIII is near and this reality is evidenced  by the fact that the Russians are drawing a clear line in the sand and this is why Obama is not concerned about any thought of impeachment. The one thing that will distract the country from the five present “Watergates” will be the commencement of World War Three.”

More:

Why Obama Will Survive the Equivalent of Five “Watergate Scandals”

Read the rest of this entry »

Click on Image to Enlarge

Syria-Russia: Update. This week, the New York Times reported that Russia is delivering not only the S-300 advanced air defense missile systems to Syria, but also Yakhont “ship killer” missiles, which would make it a lot more painful for any foreign navies trying to intervene in Syria or provide supplies to the rebels by sea

In 2007, the two countries signed a contract for 72 Yakhont missiles which are supersonic and have a range of about 200 miles. Some missiles were delivered in 2011 but the Russians have not said how many remain to be provided. They are among the most deadly anti-ship missiles in the world.

Comment: Details about the S-300 system delivery remain undisclosed, including whether Russians will install and operate it. A member of the Russian parliament confirmed the Russians consider the Yakhont delivery a part of a longstanding weapons contract. The effect of these deliveries is to deter a UN resolution approving creation of a no-fly zone in Syria, as occurred in Libya which evolved into a NATO air combat campaign with limited ground intervention.

Russia: Russian navy ships from the Pacific Fleet entered the Mediterranean Sea for the first time in decades this week. The task group includes the destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, two amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, as well as a tanker and a tugboat.

Read the rest of this entry »

DefDog

Ho ho ho….

Russian Pacific Fleet Warships Enter Mediterranean For First Time In Decades, To Park In Cyprus

Zero Hedge, 16 May 2013

Earlier we reported that the US has now officially landed a Marine force in Israel as well as an assault ship, in a visit that the US Navy promptly assured “is not associated with, nor a reaction to, any world events.” It seems we were not the only ones who read this justification somewhat skeptically: so did Russia.

And in a historic event, the Russian Pacific fleet, for the first time in decades, crossed the Suez Canal and entered the Mediterranean, direction Cyprus’ port of Limasol (hi Cyprus – Russia will be arriving shortly) in what is now the loudest implied warning to the US and Israel amassing military units across Syria’s border that Russia will not stand idly by as Syria is used by the Israeli “Defense” Forces for target practice.

Russian Amphibious Ship Admiral Nevelskoi – Click on Image to Enlarge

“The task force has successfully passed through the Suez Channel and entered the Mediterranean. It is the first time in decades that Pacific Fleet warships enter this region,” Capt. First Rank Roman Martov said. This is what is also known as dropping hints, loud and clear.

Admiral Panteleyev destroyer – Click on Image to Enlarge

The group, including the destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, the amphibious warfare ships Peresvet and Admiral Nevelskoi, the tanker Pechenga and the salvage/rescue tug Fotiy Krylov left the port of Vladivostok on March 19 to join Russia’s Mediterranean task force.

The task force currently includes the large anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, the frigate Yaroslav Mudry, the salvage/rescue tugs Altai and SB-921 and the tanker Lena from the Northern and Baltic Fleets, as well as the Ropucha-II Class landing ship Azov from the Black Sea Fleet. The task force may be enlarged to include nuclear submarines, Navy Commander Admiral Viktor Chirkov said last Sunday.

Click on Image to Enlarge

Shore leave for a whole lot of submarines just a few hundred kilometers from Syria? Surely. From Rian.

The Defense Ministry said in April Russia has begun setting up a naval task force in the Mediterranean, sending several warships from the Pacific Fleet to the region. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in March a permanent naval task force in the Mediterranean was needed to defend Russia’s interests in the region.

A senior Defense Ministry official said the Mediterranean task force’s command and control agencies will be based either in Novorossiysk, Russia, or in Sevastopol, Ukraine.

Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, head of the parliamentary defense committee, previously told RIA Novosti that the Mediterranean task force should be comprised of 10 warships and support vessels as part of several tactical groups tasked with attack, antisubmarine warfare and minesweeping.

The Soviet Union maintained its 5th Mediterranean Squadron from 1967 until 1992. It was formed to counter the US Navy’s 6th Fleet during the Cold War, and consisted of 30-50 warships and auxiliary vessels

It appears that the squadron is being reincarnated and quite rapidly at that.

It also appears that the two key naval forces in the Mediterranean are finally starting to position themselves for what may soon be a face off.

Hopefully Europe’s “anti-manipulation” task force can spook enough majors to push the price of Brent much lower before the moment such an escalation becomes reality.

Wayne Madsen

The Other Tsarnaevs in Waiting: The US CIA, Soros NGOs, & the Neocon- Salafist Interference in Russia, China, Sudan, …

EXTRACT:

It is clear that Jamestown and its CIA bosses are stoking Salafist radicalism in Russia in the same manner as the CIA’s «Al Qaeda» spurred the radical revolts that led to the ouster of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya and that are currently attempting to oust Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Jamestown has also called for Russia to accept thousands of Circassian refugees from Syria into the North Caucasus, clearly an attempt to infiltrate additional «Al Qaeda» elements into the volatile region.

One goal of the neo-cons and Salafists is the creation of a Commission of Inquiry led by a globalist – Zionist South African Judge Richard Goldstone has been mentioned as a possibility – to investigate human rights abuses in Chechnya. Of course, the end game is to seek International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments against Chechen and Russian government officials.

Read full article.

Syria: For the record. Multiple internet monitoring services reported that Syria has dropped off the Internet. One reported it is a total blackout for the country of Syria. Supposedly this has happened at least once before, prior to the start of a government offensive.

Israel-Syria: Israel is not getting involved in Syria’s civil war, Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said on Tuesday, but said Israel would not permit the transfer of arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Yaalon did not mention the Israeli air attacks in Syria over the weekend.

Comment: Israel has shown that it will protect its interests and that the Syrian Integrated Air Defense System is penetrable. On the other hand, Iran has demonstrated the ability to use its proxies to drag Israel deeper into the Syrian uprising and thereby expand the fighting and ease pressure on the Asad government.

It is not clear that Israel is prepared to accept a Sunni fundamentalist regime in Damascus. Israel knows it can live with an Alawite government. The air attacks serve its short term interests in hobbling Hezbollah, but they also remind Arabs that the larger struggle is with Israel.

The Iranian foreign minister admonished Arab leaders today by asking the question, in paraphrase, why are Arabs fighting Arabs when Israel is the enemy?

Who? Who?

Libertarian pundit Justin Raimondo has written a splendid analysis of the Boston bomber’s overseas and other connections in his column today. The bad news is he makes a convincing case they did indeed have not only Islamic extremist connections but also connections to the Chechen mafia – a very bad mix of especially vile people. Read the entire article, it is well worth the effort, but here’s a few select tidbits from it:

“To begin with, the brothers engaged in a firefight with police and held their own, throwing bombs at the police as they attempted to flee. Tamerlan was killed in a fusillade of gunfire, but Dzhokhar managed to get away. At least one of them was very familiar with firearms and knew how to use them. Neither has any known military experience: somebody trained one or both. The question is: who?…There are unconfirmed reports that the explosive devices which caused such mayhem at the marathon were set off by a sophisticated triggering mechanism, which, according to an unnamed law enforcement official, aren’t the kind of thing you can jigger from information garnered from a Google search. The same unconfirmed report says authorities are frantically trying to uncover what they believe is a “12-man sleeper cell,” and although this seems like an extravagant claim – how did they come up with the number 12? – I wouldn’t discount it entirely.”

“Nearly unnoticed in the dramatic denouement of Dzokhar’s capture: the apprehension of three people, including Dzokhar’s alleged girlfriend, in nearby New Bedford. The three were later released, but authorities reappeared at their apartment complex on Saturday and apparently detained two of the same men, who are reportedly from Kazakhstan: a van with consular license plates had earlier turned up in front of the complex, and a young woman was seen entering the van in a hurry. The Tsarnaev brothers weren’t lone nuts: they had help.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Neal Rauhauser

Understanding The Caucasus

The news that Boston’s bombers were ethnic Chechens was a bit surprising to me, as the signature of the strike was closer to domestic right wing extremists.

I wasn’t that surprised, because I have collected maps of the Caucasus region, written about past and anticipated future conflicts there, and I spent some time abusing RecordedFuture in an attempt to fish out information on the remote, restive republics and oblasts of the Caucasus. I will be working through the weekend to provide a solid update. This post is sticky – it’s an index to prior work and anything new that I do.

Here are a few snapshots from my crystal ball that date back two to four months:

Four Places You Have Never Heard Of – Abkhazia, Ingushetia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabhak. (12/19/2012)

North Caucasus Update – Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Dagestan, and Chechnya (2/14/2013).

Recorded Future vs. North Caucasus Republics – applying RecordedFuture to a region that is difficult to cover. (2/14/2013)

Read more with maps.