Chuck Spinney: Wallerstein on China-Russia Grand Strategy

Chuck Spinney

Chuck Spinney

The self-referencing chattering class is up in arms about the $400 billion Russia-China gas deal, seeing it and the associated Russia-China alliance as a threat to the grand strategic ambitions of the United States to remain, in the words of President Obama at West Point, the world’s “indispensable”* power.  Taking place against the immediate backdrop of the prevailing US narrative** describing the Ukraine Crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the gas deal is manna from heaven for the unreconstructed cold warriors and neocons in the press, the Pentagon, the defense industry, and the State Department who are fanning anti-Russian/anti-Putin hysteria with prognostications that the US, being on the cusp of a new Cold War, should not cut back its defense spending or its propensity to meddle in the affairs of others.

Viewed thru Russian and Chinese eyes, however, the gas deal may be part of a defensive grand strategy aimed at evolving pathways around Russia’s “NATO expansion problem” and China’s “pivot east” problem.  The attached essay by Immanuel Wallerstein, a traditional ‘balance of power’ scholar (in the best sense of the phrase), presents a fascinating speculation in this regard.  Only time will tell if he is on to something, but his hypothesis is well worth thinking about.

I have reformatted Wallerstein’s essay to highlight his main points … if you find this distracting, the original is at this link.

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2014 Robert Steele Open Letter to Vice President of the United States of America Joe Biden, The White House

Robert David STEELE Vivas

Robert David STEELE Vivas


These materials were delivered via certified mail to the Office of the Vice President on Monday 5 May 2014.

There is a better than even chance that the IC “minder” controlling the Vice President’s correspondence intercepted the package and the Vice President is therefore unwitting of this official certified as delivered communication.

1 May 2014 Letter to VP
Biden Six Slides
Open Source Agency Synopsis 2014
2014 Smart Nation Act (Simplified)
USPS Shipment Info for 9502600036814121000268

ADDENDUM: The OSA will be the premier decision-support organization in the world, promulgating the proven process of decision-support (requirements definition, collection management, source discovery and validation, multi-source fusion, geospatially-rooted processing, inter-disciplinary analysis, and open transparent action-enabling production). The OSA will also be the only USG element that provides Congress and the Executive with identical decision-support also shared with the public, and the only USG element that is “all in” on M4IS2/OSE. For those that have asked about personnel, tables of organization, budgets, etcetera — at this level of play, decisions are made on one line and a number. OMB has set the numbers — $125M IOC toward $2-3B FOC. My personal view is that the organization should consist of no more than  120 full-time personnel within the HQ element on the South-Central Campus. Spending will be focused on individual minds in every clime and place, and on incentivizing coalitions among the eight tribes across all boundaries. The School of Future-Oriented Hybrid Governance, the World Brain Institute, and the EarthGame will be independent subsidized elements manned by rotational personnel on sabatical — gatherings of eagles from across all nations, agencies, disciplines, and domains.

M4IS2: Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing and Sense-Making

OSE: Open Source Everything — the only affordable, inter-operable, scalable, and therefore sustainable global approach to engineering

Full Text Below the Fold — Use Translate Box to Read in Other Languages

全文下方折 – 使用转换盒来阅读其他语言
Texte intégral en dessous du pli - Utiliser Traduire Boîte à lire dans d’autres langues
Полный текст ниже раза - Использование Перевести Box читать на других языках
पूर्ण पाठ तह के नीचे - उपयोग अन्य भाषाओं में पढ़ने के लिए बॉक्स अनुवाद
Texto completo abaixo da dobra - Utilize Caja Traduzir para ler em outros idiomas
Teks Penuh Di bawah Lipat - Gunakan Terjemah Box untuk Baca dalam Bahasa Lain
Texto completo debajo de la tapa - Utilizar Caja de Traducion para leer en otros idiomas Volledige tekst onder de vouw - Inzetten Vertalen Box te lezen in andere talen

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Neal Rauhauser: Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review? Start with Counterintelligence?

Neal Rauhauser

Neal Rauhauser

Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review?

The Department of Defense began producing the Quadrennial Defense Review in 1997 in response to requests from Congress triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Four of them have been released and the fifth will begin to appear in February or March of 2014.

The Department of State began producing the Quadrennial Diplomacy & Development Review in 2010. Unlike the Congressionally mandated QDR, this review was undertaken when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State with the intent to push American diplomacy out of its dated approach. Since John Kerry has replaced Hillary Clinton there is speculation that a 2014 QDDR may not be published. This has to be taken seriously, given that it appeared in Foreign Policy magazine.

The Department of Homeland Security also produced the QHSR for the first time in 2010. Like the QDR, this one was ordered by Congress, rather than internally motivated like the QDDR.

The Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review(warning: pdf) was first published in 2001, then again in 2005 and 2009, but I do not find a document for 2013. This is a mystery which I will delve into further, but this should not be read as the IC being behind in some fashion – the National Intelligence Council has produced a Global Trends report for each incoming president since 1979.

Looking at these four areas, Congress sought a systematic review of defense after the end of the Cold War and they made a similar effort to better understand Homeland Security in 2010. The State Department wishes for a better balance between diplomacy and defense and undertook their own quadrennial review. The NIC, now part of the DNI, has been in the habit of producing quadrennial reports for incoming presidents, but this is a work product for them, rather than an oversight and planning related document. They do produce some material like this, but it isn’t queued up for a top level review the way the other three are.

The QDR covers nearly $700 billion in annual expenditures. DHS has a budget of $60 billion, the State Department is about $55 billion, and it’s harder to characterize the intelligence budget but $50 billion is close to the mark.

The Intelligence Community’s Overloaded Life Boat begins to address counter-intelligence concerns at a time when budget cuts are going to lead to the elimination of programs. Edward Snowden’s whistle blowing has laid bare an NSA that is completely out of control, but he’s done us a huge favor in making it obvious we need better oversight. Both Manning and Snowden were young, low level employees who were in a position to walk away with their employer’s most important secrets. Does anyone believe that this hasn’t already happened with other contractors, acting out of a profit motive rather than patriotism?

Congress can begin to do its duty to the American people by formalizing quadrennial review requirements for both the State Department and the seventeen agencies under management by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Marcus Aurelius: SSI Monograph on Known Unknowns – Unconventional “Strategic Shocks” in Defense Strategy Development

Marcus Aurelius

Marcus Aurelius

Ladies and Gentlemen:

You may want to check out US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute paper at link below and attached:

Read with a view to some of the strange things that have been ascribed to FEMA.


Nathan Freier

Strategic Studies Institute, November 2008


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