Public Intelligence Blog

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China-Mali: For the record. China has offered to send more than 500 soldiers to the UN force seeking to contain Islamist militants in Mali .  This would be China’s largest UN peacekeeping contingent.

Iraq: An attack at a military checkpoint at Taji, north of Baghdad, on Thursday killed 11 people, including four soldiers, and wounded five.

Comment: The pause appears ended. The fighting has killed 420 people this month.

Lebanon: Fighting in Tripoli continued for a fifth day. Overnight clashes killed six people and wounded 40. .The Middle East is now destabilized from the border of Iran to the Mediterranean.

Niger: Islamic militants executed coordinated attacks at two locations in Niger, the country east of Mali. In one attack, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb at a French-Niger owned uranium mine in the town of Arlit. Simultaneously and 125 miles south, another bomber detonated a car bomb inside a military camp in the city of Agadez. Other jihadists in vehicles attempted to overrun the base, but were stopped by a firefight with Nigerian soldiers. The bombs killed 5 bombers, 25 people and injured 29, according to the Ministry of Defense. No expatriates were killed.

During this Watch, a surviving bomber is holding several Nigerien soldiers hostage

These were the first terrorist attacks of this kind in Niger. The two towns are in central Niger. Some of the facilities for processing uranium ore were damaged at Arlit.

An affiliate of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, known as the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) claimed responsibility. They were also involved in the Mali fighting. Nigerien officials judge the fighters came from Libya. One said that Libyan instability is destabilizing the entire region.

Early this year one military analyst judged that Niger was even less prepared than Mali to cope with Islamic militants and terrorists. Nevertheless, a Nigerien unit participated in clearing operations in Gao, Mali.

The key points are that the jihadists have not given up their plans to establish a base in Sahelian Africa and all the countries are vulnerable. Their territory is enormous with poor infrastructure. They are poor and have small, poorly supported security forces.

The attacks might compel France to deploy some of the troops withdrawing from Mali to Niger. Niger is France’s single most important supplier of uranium for its extensive nuclear and electric power industries.

France might need to re-evaluate its strategy for providing security assistance to its former colonies. The threat calls for an integrated regional approach to security.  The Sahelian nations and France will certainly need outside help.

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Berto Jongman

A great deal of information.  Being read in Europe.

Special Report | Why was a Sunday Times report on US government ties to al-Qaeda chief spiked?

By Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

CeaseFire Magazine, 16 May 2013

A whistleblower has revealed extraordinary information on the U.S. government’s support for international terrorist networks and organised crime. The government has denied the allegations yet gone to extraordinary lengths to silence her. Her critics have derided her as a fabulist and fabricator. But now comes word that some of her most serious allegations were confirmed by a major European newspaper only to be squashed at the request of the U.S. government.

In a recent  book Classified Woman, Sibel Edmonds, a former translator for the FBI, describes how the Pentagon, CIA and State Department maintained intimate ties to al-Qaeda militants as late as 2001. Her memoir, Classified Woman: The Sibel Edmonds Story, published last year, charged senior government officials with negligence, corruption and collaboration with al Qaeda in illegal arms smuggling and drugs trafficking in Central Asia.

In interviews with this author in early March, Edmonds claimed that Ayman al-Zawahiri, current head of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden’s deputy at the time, had innumerable, regular meetings at the U.S. embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan, with U.S. military and intelligence officials between 1997 and 2001, as part of an operation known as ‘Gladio B’. Al-Zawahiri, she charged, as well as various members of the bin Laden family and other mujahideen, were transported on NATO planes to various parts of Central Asia and the Balkans to participate in Pentagon-backed destabilisation operations.

According to two Sunday Times journalists speaking on condition of anonymity, this and related revelations had been confirmed by senior Pentagon and MI6 officials as part of a four-part investigative series that were supposed to run in 2008. The Sunday Times journalists described how the story was inexplicably dropped under the pressure of undisclosed “interest groups”, which, they suggest, were associated with the U.S. State Department.

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President Assad: “I’m HERE TO STAY!”

West fueling violence without regard to cost.

Israeli Army Enters Syria & Supports the Pentagon-Trained Al Nusra Merceneries

All of one Israeli jeep destoryed by Syrian artillery fire in Security Zone.

Russia Sends at Least 12 Warships to Syria: A Warning to Israeli/US against Military Intervention in Syria

And there are the Russian specialists manning the Russian anti-air and anti-ship missiles now owned by Syria.

Chuck Spinney

Pressure is mounting for the US to become involved in the Syrian civil war.  Advocates of intervention have all sorts of motives.  Once of the most attractive talking points from the perspective of the interventionists is the Syria’s alleged use of chemical weapons on its own people.  This short and well focused essay addresses that allegation …. The author is one one of the most seasoned reporters now covering the Middle East.

MAY 20, 2013

Why the Claims of Sarin Gas Don’t Add Up

Syria Has No Reason to Use Chemical Weapons

by PATRICK COCKBURN, Counterpunch

‘I am not afraid of anything except for God and poison gas,” said an Iraqi officer who had fought in the Iran-Iraq war. “It’s like a ghost. You have no defence against it.” Though not a target of poison gas as a member of the army using it, he knew what it did to its victims.

Poison gas is a terrifying weapon. People are still dying in Iran from the effects of ingesting it a quarter of a century ago. It is one of the few weapons to be banned with partial success between its first use on a mass scale in the First World War and again by Saddam Hussein with even greater intensity against Iranians and Kurds in the 1980s.

It is right, therefore, that the alleged attack by the Syrian armed forces using chemical weapons against Saraqeb, a rebel-held town south-west of Aleppo on 29 April, should be carefully investigated. Doctors told the BBC’s Ian Pannell that after an artillery bombardment they treated eight people with breathing problems, some of whom were vomiting and others who had constricted pupils.

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Chuck Spinney

The popular perception of Hezbollah as simply an Islamic terrorist organization has been colored by American-Israeli propaganda (particularly wrt to relations with Iran and Syria), sloppy reporting, and a growing sense of Islamophobia in American culture.

Rami Khouri is a prolific Lebanese intellectual who writes widely on the Middle East.  His austere, direct form of writing lays out arguments clearly and concisely.  Like all writers of Middle Eastern affairs, his predictions are often wrong, but unlike most, his fault lines, when they occur, are easily traced.  In short, Khouri is always a good read and well worth following, because even if his arguments turn out to be erroneous, they are a fount of useful information.

Attached below is his fascinating take on Hezbollah.  I reformatted it to highlight his points but have not changed a word or the order of his words.  Some readers find my highlighting distracting, others like it; if you are one of the former, the link below will take you to the original.

Chuck Spinney

Hezbollah’s Moment of Reckoning in Qusayr

22 May 2013

BEIRUT — The most fascinating aspect of the war in Syria this month — and perhaps also the most significant in terms of long-term regional geo-politics — is the direct involvement of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shiite party and resistance group that is closely allied to Iran and Syria. The significance of Hezbollah’s participation in the battle for the Syrian town of Qusayr comprises several distinct elements:

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Citation:  “Graphic” Really Simple Guide to Syrian-Centered WWWIII Starting Line-Up,” Phi Beta Iota the Public Intelligence Blog, 18 May 2013.

See Also:

Berto Jongman: Assad Moving Missiles to Target Tel Aviv?

Neal Rauhauser: Syria, Regional War, The Only Red Line That Matters + Syria Meta-RECAP

Berto Jongman

Report: Assad preparing missile strike against Tel Aviv in case attacked again

The Syrian army is deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles aiming at Israel in the aftermath of the alleged Israeli strikes, The Sunday Times reports.

Ha’aretz in Israel, 19 May 2013

Syria is making preparations to strike Tel Aviv in case Israel launches another attack on its territory, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

The Syrian army has begun deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles, the report said, adding that it has received orders to strike central Israel in case additional attacks against Syria are carried out.

The Sunday Times said that the information was obtained by reconnaissance satellites that were tracking the Syrian forces. According to the report, Syria was deploying advanced Tishreen missiles which are capable of carrying a holf-ton warhead.

Read full article.

See Also:

‘Turkey to see more bombings as Erdogan’s support for Syrian rebels backfires’

Neal Rauhauser

The Only Red Line That Matters

Conclusion:

Here are what I hope are a fairly complete laundry list of the issues:

• NATO member Greece has collapsed, triggering regional banking meltdown concerns
• Banks of Cyprus collapsed, Russian offshore banking haven taken out by Greek troubles
• Russian ally Assad’s Syria is failing, loss of Tartus would exclude them from the Med
• Assad regime is the only Iran friendly outpost in the area
• Syrian revolt is funded in part by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, other Sunni majority regimes
• KSA & Qatar funds come /w Salafist radicalization built into the deal
• NATO members Greece & Turkey are at odds over Cyprus partition
• Syrian instability is spilling into Iraq, fueling Sunni/Shia violence, some refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into U.S. ally Jordan, many refugees
• Syrian instability is spilling into NATO member Turkey, many refugees
• Israel is concerned over weapons transport to Hezbollah in Lebanon

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The Syrian civil war has been metastasizing into all of its immediate neighbors – Iraq, Turkey, and Lebanon have all seen violence precipitated by this festering conflict. Regional powers Iran and Russia have connections to the failing Assad regime and have taken indirect steps to protect the status quo. Regional Salafist funders Saudi Arabia and Qatar are funneling support and pushing ideology on Sunni Syrian rebels. I do not envy Israeli policy makers and the menu of unpleasant options that reality has provided them.

Russia has drawn a red line of their own – no NATO intervention in Syria. They’ve backed it up with a naval presence and the transfer of advance anti-aircraft systems to the Assad regime. The Syrian civil war is a multifaceted, multipolar regional issue and there are no soundbite sized prescriptions that will end it.

Read full post with maps.

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Who? Who?

The real story here is not whether Obama will survive five Watergate-type scandals, but it is rather about his response to scandals in his administration will lead to WWIII. Here are key take-aways from this first article:

“In the last eight months, I have repeated the mantra that most of what drives this government today is the preservation of the Petrodollar on behalf of the Federal Reserve. I have also detailed how Iran is selling its oil to Russia, China and India for gold, thus threatening the preeminence of the Petrodollar in which the other countries of the world must first purchase dollars from the Federal Reserve for the “privilege” of purchasing oil. This process provides the only backing that our dollar possesses.  Iran, China, Russia and India are destabilizing the dominance of our currency…”

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Syria is key to attacking Iran:

“On the surface, Syria seems so very insignificant on the global chessboard. However, the key to invading Iran and seizing their oil fields is to first control Syria because the occupation of Syria is an insurmountable checkmate against Russian ground troops intervention.  If the US takes over the Syrian revolution that we started through our al-Qaeda proxy forces, the US will gain a huge tactical advantage in the Middle East. The installation of short and medium range missile batteries in Syria will serve as a deterrent and a blocking mechanism for Russian ground troops ability to intervene in Iran.  If Russia allows the US to control Syria, Russia will lose any chance of preventing a US/NATO takeover of Iran. Russia and China have heavily vested themselves in gold. If Iran is stopped from selling its oil for gold, China, Russia and India will have wasted a enormous amount of the respective GNP’s in acquiring gold.  And the acquisition of gold will be for naught if the US is above to re-establish the dominance of the Petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency through a successful invasion of Iran.  For awhile, it appeared as if Russia did not have the stomach for WWIII and they were going to let us topple Assad with so much as a whimper. I have been shocked as I watched Russia apparently acquiesce to an impending takeover of Syria by US led forces.  However, recent Russian events make it clear that WWIII is on the horizon.”

Intervening in Syria may result in some remarkable black swans if this author’s contacts are correct:

“My military and intelligence sources were telling me last year that Alaska and Taiwan were at risk of a Russian invasion with regard to this conflict as is the North Pole if we intervened directly in either Syria or Iran. The North Pole?  The North Pole’s melting glaciers has exposed the world’s greatest oil supply as well as untold amounts of gold and other precious metals. This is another story for another time except to illustrate that the Russians are talking world war if we topple Assad and invade Iran.  This means WWIII is near and this reality is evidenced  by the fact that the Russians are drawing a clear line in the sand and this is why Obama is not concerned about any thought of impeachment. The one thing that will distract the country from the five present “Watergates” will be the commencement of World War Three.”

More:

Why Obama Will Survive the Equivalent of Five “Watergate Scandals”

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Iraq: Bombs exploded in Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad and in surrounding towns on Friday, killing at least 76 people.

Two staggered explosions were used in the deadliest attack which targeted Muslims as they were leaving the main Sunni mosque in Baqubah, 35 miles north-east of Baghdad. The second explosion targeted people who gathered to help the wounded, leaving 41 dead and 56 wounded, according to police and hospital officials.

A roadside bomb exploded later on Friday during a Sunni funeral procession in Madain, about 12 miles south of Baghdad, killing eight mourners and wounding 11, police said. .

Another blast struck a cafe in Fallujah, 40 miles west of Baghdad, killing two people and wounding nine, according to police and hospital officials.

In Baghdad, a bomb exploded near a shopping center during the evening rush hour in the mainly Sunni neighborhood of Amariyah, killing 21 people and wounding 32. That was followed by another bomb in a commercial district in Dora, another Sunni neighborhood, which killed four people and wounded 22, according to officials.

Comment: The series of bombings against Sunni targets on Friday apparently were in retaliation for two days of bombings earlier in the week against Shiite targets. Authorities reported 130 people died in attacks since Wednesday.

The momentum towards sectarian war in Iraq might have been stopped by political reforms that provided for more equitable power sharing with the Sunni political parties. The al Maliki government, instead, treated Sunni political protestors as terrorists and Baathists.

Now the time for compromise appears to have passed. One ripple effect of the fighting in Syria is that Sunni groups in Iraq have become emboldened to fight the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad.

Former prime minister Allawi warned this week that the bombings will continue until al Maliki resigns and new elections are held. But neither is likely.

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